A Pandemic And A Studio Slump Puts Extreme Pressure On Chris Nolan’s ‘Tenet’ To Be A Box Office Smash

Scott Mendelson
April 26, 2020

Chris Nolan’s Tenet, starring John David Washington and Robert Pattinson, must pull Warner Bros. out of a slump and all-but save theatrical moviegoing, all while being a mega-budget original blockbuster.

Warner Bros. is still planning on releasing Chris Nolan’s Tenet into global theatrical release on the week of July 17. That’s long been a favorite summer slot for Warner Bros., as evidenced by Harry Potter 5, 6 and 7, The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises, Inception, The Conjuring and Dunkirk. It’s understandable why Nolan and WB would launch the $200 million, time-twisty espionage actioner on July 17, but this year the John David Washington/Robert Pattinson flick may find itself as the summer kick-off movie during an otherwise delayed/canceled summer movie season.

As such, the film will find itself carrying several unique burdens on its non-IP, marque director-driven shoulders. It’s entirely possible that things do not improve to the point where theaters can safely open by early July. I wouldn’t be shocked, speculation alert, if Warner Bros. moves Tenet to August 14 and delays Wonder Woman 1984 to October 2. If Tenet can’t open on July 17, I’m guessing that Walt Disney’s Mulan can’t open on July 24 either. An August 14 release date for Tenet would still give the film the marketing hook of being the first mega-movie of post-coronavirus era.

The film remains an ideal “curtain launcher.” It is highly anticipated, Nolan is the biggest “director is the movie star” brand name that Hollywood has and it’s the kind of film that “demands” to be seen theatrically. Heck, it’s non a franchise flick so if it under-performs there’s no brand or IP in jeopardy. Tenet could have to pull its weight far beyond its original intentions. It still has to “prove” that even Chris Nolan, can still get audiences to show up for a mega-budget original. It has to pull Warner Bros. out of a major slump. Oh, and it also has to essentially save the movies.

Interstellar earned $188 million domestic and $677 million worldwide in late 2014, just before the VOD/streaming revolution changed the moviegoing habits of general theatrical moviegoers. Even that film had an advantage of opening against kid flicks (Big Hero 6, The Penguins of Madagascar) and “for the fans only” blockbusters (Hunger Games: Mockingjay part Iand The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies) leaving it, like Skyfall two years prior, the only game in town in both Thanksgiving and Christmas for “big” blockbuster movies.

Washington and Pattinson are not quite “added value element” movie stars on par with Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway and Jessica Chastain, let alone “last movie star standing” Leonardo DiCaprio who helped pushed Inception to $292.5 million domestic (and $833 million global on a $160 million budget) from a $62.7 million launch in July of 2010. Ironically, you can argue that casting Washington was itself a show of force, not unlike JJ Abrams casting Daisy Ridley and John Boyega in The Force Awakens, in terms of challenging conventional wisdom ( “It’s time for a new protagonist”) about who can be the hero in movies like this.

The star-free World War II thriller Dunkirk was a big hit in 2017, but when your movie only costs $100 million then $529 million is a huge win. Oh, and Inception’s “adjusted for inflation” opening weekend would be around $74 million in 2020 dollars, so please approach any arguments swearing that Tenet could open to $100 million with caution. Again, Inception was Nolan coming off The Dark Knight, in the middle of a pretty miserable summer, and starring the world’s biggest movie star. Such a comparison would be a stunning triumph, but under these circumstances, Interstellar numbers would still be a huge win.

Regardless, Tenet now it has two new variables that demand blockbuster success. First, Warner Bros. has been in a relative slump since the end of 2018. They had a killer 2018 slate (Crazy Rich Asians, A Star Is Born, Ready Player One, The Meg, etc.) but floundered in 2019 as Godzilla: King of the Monsters and LEGO Movie 2 flopped, It Chapter Two, Pokemon: Detective Pikachu and Annabelle Comes Home played slightly below (overly optimistic?) projections and a swarm of old-school studio programmers (Blinded By the Light, The Good Liar, The Goldfinch, The Kitchen, Doctor Sleep) died badly.

2020 wasn’t better, as Birds of Prey underwhelmed ($200 million on an $82 million budget) while Ben Affleck’s The Way Back was the latest “Hollywood doesn’t make these anymore because audiences don’t show up when they do” character-driven drama flop. WB was supposed to come roaring back with the triple-punch of Wonder Woman 1984 on June 5, In the Heights on June 26 and Tenet on July 17, but the musical melodrama has been moved to June 18, 2021 while the other two may be the first to test to the current post-social distancing waters.

Universal had a slightly similar situation, bombing hard with Cats and Dolittle only to see their presumed 2020 mega-hits delayed accordingly. F9 and Minions 2 were pushed to next year while No Time to Die will (hopefully) open over Thanksgiving, arguably a less risky proposition than opening in just under three months. The other variable is that the whole “Tenet goes first” is both a huge marketing/cultural hook and a big risk. We still don’t know how quickly the pandemic (and its related social isolation measures) will safely subside, or to what extent folks will be comfortable sitting in theaters between “The country is open.” and “We’ve got a vaccine.”

As such, while the film has a “wanna see it” factor as big (if not big, relatively speaking) as Wonder Woman 1984 and Mulan, it also carries the burden of “proving” that audiences will still show up to a Hollywood blockbuster in a post-coronavirus environment. We frankly don’t have a clue, whether Tenet opens on July 17, August 14 or even later still, if audiences will show up in numbers comparable to the scenario had Tenet been the last mega-movie of the summer as opposed to the end of a four-month blackout period.

Back when Tenet was first dated in January of 2019, and even when it was shot in May of 2019, the circumstances of its reception were very different. Warner Bros. was coming off a stunningly successful year filled with one-and-done blockbusters and non-franchise hits, while Aquaman of all things had surfed a way of good buzz and holiday scheduling to earn $1.148 billion worldwide, more than any DC flick ever. While Disney ruled 2018, WB’s slate was the kind of diverse, franchise-lite and “future-proof” line-up that seemed to suggest sturdy footing alongside the Disney IP machine.

The only thing Tenet was “responsible” for was its own specific success and giving Warner Bros. a big original sci-fi blockbuster alongside the surefire success of Wonder Woman 1984. But in July of 2020, Tenet still has to “prove” the vitality of the original big-budget blockbuster. It also has to pull Warner Media out of a (save for Joker) year-long slump AND essentially proving that folks will still flock to theaters once they are allowed to leave their homes again.

Chris Nolan’s Tenet doesn’t just have to prove its value. It has to prove its value as a non-IP flick, kick-start a Warner Bros. comeback and prove that theatrical moviegoing still has a future. This despite it not being the kind of marquee character-specific franchise title that is most likely to put butts in the seats. The heroes of Tenet are (allegedly) on a mission to save the world from nuclear annihilation. In the real world, Tenet is on a mission to essentially save Hollywood. To paraphrase another Warner Bros. blockbuster from a generation ago, once again, Chris, we ask too much of you.

This article was first published here.